Sunday, September 25, 2011

Mr. Market Sees Nothing But Gloom- Treasuries Outperform, Paypal's Dominance, and Saturday Night Live's Ha Ha!!!

Well, last week certainly was a tough one in the market as the major averages fell about 6% for the week. Tomorrow's front page of the Wall St Journal discusses how investors are running away from stocks. The 10 year treasury bond yield's below 2%. One can refinance their home using 15 year loans at below 3.5%. If this is not the scenario Ben Graham talks about when he says all Mr. Market sees is gloom, I don't know what is. Yes, stocks can get cheaper, it is amazing sometimes how cheap stocks can get, however, the idea they are going to keep getting pounded 6% in a week is mathmatically not going to hold up. Stocks have been down for 5 straight months, and are down at least 25% from August, and many much more than that. Do your own homework and use your own judgement about what you think is a good buy, or not a good buy, and certainly keep in mind anybody who is on a financial program is going to talk their own book. If they say the market is going down more, you better believe they are short. Here is the Bloomberg article on the outperformance of Treasuries-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-25/betting-on-bernanke-returns-28-for-treasuries-as-twist-divides-investors.html Doom and Gloom Leads the WSJ-http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204831304576592822485984958.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories Paypal is just so dominant in tranactions-http://techcrunch.com/2011/09/25/paypal-now-processing-315-million-in-payments-per-day/ A hysterical look at the Republican debate by Saturday Night Live-http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/09/25/snl_mocks_latest_fox_news_republican_debate.html As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder. Yale Bock, CFA President, Y H & C Investments

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

For Now, Europe Headlines Scare the Market, Google vs Facebook, Growth in A Japanese Retailer, and The Ultimate Mess at Full Tilt (Ponzi Scheme?)

Stock markets around the world continued to be petrified by the European sovereign debt situation, especially with events coming to a head in Greece. Traders just love the headlines and resulting volatility, as they say, buy the dips and sell the rips, which is what is happening. However, more and more I am beginning to notice the market starting to differentiate between performance and lack therof. As a result, the 100% correlations across all asset classes are starting to dissolve, and as earnings season approaches, if the market starts to become unafraid of the Europe situation, profitability, growth, and results will matter, as they always do. Ultimately the European currency issue will get resolved, one way or the other, and stock markets around the world can resume whatever path the companies which comprise them deserve. A battle which may last a long time: Google vs Facebook-http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904194604576582803071402090.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection Interesting that a Japanese retailer can serve up growth: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-20/underwear-model-shows-an-economy-how-to-grow-commentary-by-william-pesek.html What a mess in the internet poker space- Full Tilt Poker A Ponzi Scheme?-http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576582741398633386.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder. Yale Bock, CFA President, Y H & C Investments

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