Saturday, December 17, 2011
Europe Hold's the Market Hostage, MF Global's Ignorance, Why Amazon Wins, Military I Phone Apps, and Zynga's IPO Bust!
December is usually the best month of the year for the stock market as the 'Santa Claus' rally coincides with a generally positive feeling when the holidays are here. In 2011, there has been no rally as the European debt crisis continues to hold equity markets hostage. France and Britain are beginning to point fingers, while Germany maintains there should be no debt monetization from the ECB. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy slowly continues to perform better than expected, even with the issues surrounding European governments and banks.
Investors are scared, frustrated, upset, and taking money off the table at every opportunity. In addition, now is the time when tax loss selling is an issue for those who are trying to be tax efficient. If you put it all together, equity investors are finding it very difficult to outperform indexes as good performances from any stock are scarce, to say the least. Conversely, there is value in the market, in almost every sector, depending on what you are trying to find. Be patient, look at all kinds of things, and make sure you get what fits your budget, objective, risk profile, time horizon, and needs.
Jon Corzine, the ex NJ Senator, Governor, and CEO of MF Global, gets in front of Congress and says he has no idea what happened to 1.2 billion dollars of customer money. Last I remember, when you go to traffic school, they tell you ignorance is not a valid defense for any violation. Just consider the audacity to tell people you have no idea where 1.2 billion dollars of customer money is and what happened to it. Congress's approval rate is 11-13%, and they continue to do business where the modus operandi is to wait until one or two days until they have to get something done, and then they start negotiating. There are lots of great things happening in the United States, but our leaders in the political and justice system are in serious need of shall we say, a closer look, at the very least. A great quote from Alan Abelson of Barron's is applicable to our politicians- "They couldn't run water."
If you want to know why Amazon.com is such a dominant company, here is a great article on how they see things: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/17/business/at-amazon-jeff-bezos-talks-long-term-and-means-it.html?ref=business
Apps for the I-phone are starting to gain traction in the military: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-15/soldiers-iphones-guide-artillery-fire-as-pentagon-plans-app-store-tech.html
Zynga's IPO value is less than half what pre-IPO investors thought it would be. The social networking bubble from last spring is being repriced, as have a lot of other stocks: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2017034422_zyngaipo17.html
I hope everyone has a great holidays, healthy and happy and enjoying your families. If you have any comments or thoughts about this blog post, please share them!!!
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
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