Recession is Built In, the T-Hause, and Facebook gets the London Olympics-

July 4 has come and gone, and the summer Olympics in London are rapidly approaching. Summer is usually a more relaxed time, and the record hot temperatures across the United States have literally put a little fire under most people. In stock markets across the world, trading volumes are usually light and this year is no exception. In looking at the volumes over the last few weeks, the average volume is half of what it might be during the fall or winter. As a result, the volatility is more pronounced. With the profit warnings from Cummings, Nike, AMD, and the bankruptcy of Patriot Coal, investors are very nervous over the possibility of a global recession.

From my perspective, in many ways, the world economy is already in a recession. Unofficial unemployment in the U.S. is already 15%, and that does not include the underemployed. In many mature European countries, you have official unemployment rates hovering well above 10% and youth unemployment above 20% and in some cases closer to 50%. Stock markets have done very little for 15 years, and bond yields are incredibly low. Many believe the continued low interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve are the proper medicine to fight deflation. Many disagree as well, sighting a persistently sluggish economy and lack of jobs and hiring in the private sector. I think most people are sick of the finger pointing and want results, not excuses or blaming the opposing political sides. If people want bickering, they can look at their young children and teenagers and get enough disagreement to last a lifetime.

Let me include a shameless plug for a new business I am a part of, the T-Haus:(www.californiathaus.com).



I have been drinking loose leaf tea since my sister in law Jacci Aronson introduced it to me last December. Drinking tea has become a wonderful daily habit for me and I thoroughly enjoy preparing a different tea each morning and evening. If you have any gift needs or would like to try drinking loose leaf tea, you might go to the site and call Jacci for more information. She will certainly provide you plenty of information to make the experience enjoyable. (If you have any interest at all, just enter your email address and you will be added to our mailing list).


Social Media is just so powerful and it is helping change the business landscape very quickly. Those who embrace it will prosper, those who don't will fall by the wayside. Here is a nice piece about a fashion related startup- http://techcrunch.com/2012/07/11/social-media-for-the-fashion-conscious-chicisimo-chalks-up-800k-in-angel-funding/

The Olympics are going to be integrated with Facebook. Lots of people doubt the company, but I am not one of them-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/business/media/nbc-and-facebook-announce-facebook-partnership.html?ref=business

Nice article about how to help achieve your goals-http://www.businessinsider.com/five-steps-for-achieving-your-goals-2012-7

Finally, I know it is hot, hot, hot, so make sure you drink plenty of water, or tea- hint, hint, to make sure you stay hydrated. Have a great rest of the week and weekend.

Y H & C Investments, Yale Bock, and the family of Yale Bock own positions in securities mentioned in the blog post. Investing in stocks can lead to the complete loss of your capital. As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
Here are some Seeking Alpha articles Yale Bock has written about specific companies.