Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Y H & C Investments September 2010 Newsletter

US Economic & Financial Markets Outlook: The “We‟re “Bleeped” Economy (Louis Black), Bonds vs. Stocks, and Why the Bond Market Might Be the Biggest Threat to the U.S. Economy.
Louis Black is a hysterically funny comedian, which is special, but even more unique is his use of extremes. If you have ever watched a set of his, he has a routine where the punch line of the joke ends with Black screaming, “We‟re BLEEPED, We‟re Bleeped. (screwed but with an f).” In looking at the stock and bond markets in the current environment, it seems as every piece of macroeconomic information released is treated based on the premise investors should rename the U.S. economy the “We‟re BLEEPED” market.
To be fair, there have been data which support the idea the economy is significantly weakening. For example, last week unemployment claims went above the 500 thousand totals, while this week they settled at 470 thousand. In addition, new and existing home sales both revealed a 30% reduction in sales, the worst number in 15 years. On Friday (August 27th), GDP for the last quarter came in at a revised 1.7% growth, down from the previous quarter of 3.6% growth. Some economists had forecasted growth to come in at .5%. As Art Cashin, long time trader on Wall Street, said on CNBC, “There is a bull market in pessimism.” Throwing in his two cents was famed economist Nouriel Roubini, who upped his forecast of a double dip recession to 40%.
Naturally, the stock market has reacted unfavorably to these events, closing down in each of the last three weeks. So, these events and the decidedly negative attitude in the market lead to the key question, which supporters are accurately forecasting the direction of the economy, bullish stock investors or those who favor the bond market as a superior investment alternative?
Bond investors believe deflation will continue to be the main threat to the U.S. economy and bonds will preserve capital better in a negative, low, or no inflation rate scenario. On any asset, the real return is the nominal rate of return minus the rate of inflation. For example, if inflation is zero or close to zero, and an asset yields a nominal rate of 2%, the real return is 2% (R=2-0=2%). With two year treasury bonds at .56% (a little more than half of 1%), 10 year bonds at 2.64%, and the 30 year yielding 3.67%, current prices have very little margin of error in the event inflation picks up. Consider the following quote by Michael Lewitt, president of asset manager Harch Capital Management in an interview with Lawrence Strauss in the August 30th edition of Barron‟s, one of the premier financial publications in the world.
Barron‟s (Question): What‟s ahead for Treasuries?
Lewitt: „When the yield is below 2.50%, it doesn‟t take much of either an inflation scare or something else—but it would most likely be an inflation scare to make rates rise (interest rates). And as they rise from such low levels, the mathematics are just brutal, and you can get
your clock cleaned by going long Treasuries or high grade bonds. So you have to be very, very careful. If you buy a bond and you are going to hold it to maturity, you are locked in at around 2.5% now for 10 years. It‟s an awfully long time. I don‟t think rates are going to be appreciably higher for quite a long time, either. So it is prudent, for a little more yield to go into, say, an investment grade bond fund. But you may have some price volatility when that backup (of rates) comes. I am of the school that believes that deflation is a bigger risk than inflation, and that inflation is not going to come for a while. Right now the black- swan trade is betting on inflation. Everybody seems to be betting on deflation and lower rates, so the outlier trade is that there will be an inflation scare and that low rates will pop up- and that could really decimate some portfolios.‟ Barron‟s, August 30th, 2010 Edition. Lawrence Strauss.
Stock investors, including myself, point to many factors as to why stocks are currently a good value. First, valuations are cheap with many large cap stocks in the S&P 500 trading at 10-12X forward earnings. Second, dividend yields on high quality stocks range anywhere from 2.5-4%, in many cases greater than the longest of bond yields. Third, corporate earnings have been strong and the amount of cash sitting on balance sheets is at an all time high. Fourth, companies can borrow at low rates to fund operations or engage in merger and acquisition activities. If companies can grow operating cash flow at anywhere from 5-10% per year, based on the previous factors, it is hard to see how stocks are not a much superior investment alternative than bonds, but again, I am always biased towards stocks.
Finally, in the investment world there are many choices out there, but investors are forced to live with the choices about allocating capital. I believe the most dangerous threat to the U.S. economy is the possibility the deflationist camp is wrong and there is a massive bond bubble waiting to be pricked by higher inflation or interest rates. Billions of dollars have been pouring into bond funds over the last 18 months, and the bond market has been in bull mode for 15 years. The world must have deflation for a long time for the bond thesis to hold up. If it does not turn out to be accurate, bond investors must live with the outcome, both good and bad.
Global Economic & Financial Markets Outlook: Global Indexes Are Generally Underperforming, BRIC Countries, and Pockets of Strength.
(All country index data provided by the market data section of the WSJ on August 28, 2010)
The majority of international stock indexes throughout the world have negative returns through the end of August 2010. As far as specific continents throughout the world are concerned, the consensus view in the investment community regarding economic outlooks remains the same- the mature economies of Western Europe, other than Germany, will struggle under various austerity measures to deleverage and the result will be flat to minimal growth over the next few years. Asian economies and the BRIC countries should continue to have the quickest GDP growth in the world, but that does not mean their financial markets will outperform every year.
As far as global capital markets are concerned, there is a unique situation which currently exists. The BRIC countries, which many investors consider the place where a heavy percentage of their assets should be allocated, have not performed well this year as far as investment returns are concerned. Last year, those indexes dramatically outperformed other world indexes. For
example, the Bovespa Index of Brazil is down -4.4% year to date, the Russian RTS Index is down -0.3%, India‟s Bombay Index is up +3.3%, and China‟s Shanghai composite and the Dow Jones China 88 are down -20.3% and 23.9% respectively. These data speak to time horizon as a key factor in considering potential investments as the more time an investor has, the better chance a BRIC investor will see better than average returns. In that vein, now might be an excellent time to consider specific BRIC country indexes for a potential investment.
Finally, I think it is always important to look for countries which have notably outperformed through the year. Interestingly enough, Turkey‟s index is up 12.3% for the year, Thailand has increased 22.6%, the Philippines have grown by 16.6%, and Indonesia‟s return is outstanding at +22.5%. All are excellent returns for country indexes in a very tough environment for positive returns. However, as the BRIC country index returns data shows, one year of returns is too short a time frame to make assertions about outperformance for a great length of time.
Y H & C Investments: The Psychology of Contrarian Investing: History and How Applicable it is to the Current Market Environment, and how Time is on the Side of Stocks.
The famous line about history by Mark Twain is, “History does not repeat itself but it does rhyme.” In looking at the current capital market situation, the consensus outlook by many noted economic forecasters is that the biggest threat to the U.S. economy is deflation. In looking back in history at similar economic conditions, consider the following passages from “The Davis Dynasty- Fifty Years of Successful Investing on Wall Street.” John Rothschild. Published by John Wiley, 2001. Pp 58-60.
„The recent past had told people bonds were attractive and safe but the present was telling Davis they were ugly and dangerous. Interest rates were fast approaching what John Maynard Keynes called the “balm and sweet simplicity of no percent.” Keynes was exaggerating, but not by much—the yield on long term Treasuries hit bottom at 2.03% in April of 1946. Buyers would have to wait 25 years to double their money, and to Davis, this was pathetic compounding. He saw the threat in the “sea of money on which the U.S. Treasury has floated the costliest of wars.” With the government deep in hock and forced to borrow another 70 billion to cover its latest shortfall, he was certain lenders soon would demand higher rates, not lower. The most reliable inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose sharply in 1946. Bond bulls turned a blind eye to the inflationary outlook and ignored a basic lesson from Investment 101- Avoid bonds when the CPI is rising. A second lesson is avoid bonds after a costly war.” (pp 58-59)
I find it interesting the current situation is one where the U.S. Government is running far larger deficits (than 1946), has 50 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities, and the 30 year Treasury bond yields 3.67%, which one might find similar to 1946, but in a more extreme way. Is inflation roaring today- not right now, but conditions can change quickly, and if they do, consider the following from the same book:
“Is it a cruel joke that the most popular asset of each era will impoverish its owners? Every 20 years or so in the 20th century, the most rewarding investment of the day reached the
top of its rise and started a long decline, and the least rewarding investment hit bottom and began a long ascent… In the late 1920‟s, yesterday‟s proven winner was stocks, and the love for equities wrecked the net worth of a generation. A skeptical minority escaped into government bonds, a move that gave them an excellent and steady income for the next 17 years. Stocks never fully recovered. The late 1940‟s brought another turning point. By that time, bonds were yesterday‟s proven winners and were hailed as the safest and smartest investment. What followed was a 34 year bear market in bonds that lasted from the Truman Era to the Reagan years. The 2-3% bond yields in the late 1940‟s expanded to 15% in the early 1980‟s, and as yields rose, bond prices fell and bond investors lost money. The same government bond that sold for $101 in 1946 was worth only $17 in 1981. After 3 decades, loyal bondholders who had held their bonds lost 83 cents on every dollar they invested.” (Pp 60-61)
From my perspective, investors need to consider this history when evaluating investment alternatives. I believe time is currently on the side of stock investors as the mathematics of investing favors buying companies with growing revenues which pay a dividend yield of 2-4%, and a dividend which has consistently grown over time. If inflation or interest rates rise in the next 30 years, bond prices will go down, making a flat stock investment a more attractive alternative than a government bond. In some cases, stocks can go up 5-15% in a day, let alone considering what can happen over 30 years. The great thing about capital markets is asset allocation determines your outcome (return) based on your analysis. One thing is certain, father time will determine how intelligent (or not) a stock or bond investment is today versus 1, 3, 5, or 15 years from now. Lastly, for another perspective on the current market, here is a link to a nice article by famed financial writer Roger Lowenstein. (Please copy the link into your browser) (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/29/magazine/29fob-wwln-t.html?_r=1&ref=business)
Ok, thanks for reading this month and as always, if you have any comments, questions, or concerns, please email me at info@y-hc.com

As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.

Yale Bock, CFA
President, Y H & C Investments

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Y H & C August 2010 Newsletter

WWW.Y-HC.com
Y H & C Monthly Newsletter- August 2010 Edition #27
(Please note: Investments results do not include dividends reinvested or received)
Index- 2010 Return Yearly Return from Date of Picks
Dow Jones +.003%
S&P 500 -.012%
Nasdaq -0.06%
Russell 2000 +.04%
July 2010 Picks +2.41
June 2010 Picks -1.67%
May 2010 Picks -03.14%
April 2010 Picks -1.42%
March 2010 Picks -3.46%
February 2010 Picks -0.86%
January 2010 Picks -13.70%
December 2009 Picks -10.80%
November 2009 Picks -04.60%
October 2009 Picks +9.90%
September 2009 Picks -0.15%
August 2009 Picks +21.93%
July 2009 Picks +21.27%
June 2009 Picks +21.08%
May 2009 Picks +109.89%
April 2009 Picks +71.00%
March 2009 Picks +145.17%
February 2009 Picks +95.10%
January 2009 Picks +64.80%










US Economic & Financial Markets Outlook: Low Volumes, Wide Trading Spreads, and is the “New Normal” correct?
During the month of July 2010, U.S. Financial Markets had a good month on the equity side as the Dow gained almost 7%, the Nasdaq advanced 6.99%, the S&P 500 tacked on 7.48%, and the Russell 2000 gained 2.58%. The most notable observation I can make about July is the lower volumes which took place in almost every stock I look at. On almost any non-earnings report day, the average trading volume of any stock was down at least 10-20% from an average non summer day. With lower volumes, bid-ask spreads become wider, so what happens is large price swings in individual stocks become normal.
With these wide price swings the typical situation on the equity trading floor, fixed income funds became far more aggressive on the publicity front, commenting on television at every opportunity on the inevitable doom and downfall in the equity markets. Why might bond funds become so vocal about the horrible outcomes in the stock market which have to take place? The answer lies in self interest, not a shock to most investors, even non astute ones. Over the last few years bond funds have seen massive capital inflows, and the funds must put the cash to work and boy have they ever. With bond yields trading as low as they have in many years (2 yr treasury-.61%, 10yr-2.99%, 30yr-4.07%), the interest rate risk for bonds, especially treasury bonds, has probably never been higher. These bond funds want to make sure capital keeps flowing in, and as such, their fees continue to go up, not hard to understand.
The standard line from bond fund managers is the world is now facing the “new normal.” The phrase means the developed world economies face a new situation of deleveraging (reducing debt), overcapacity in many industries, high unemployment which will last longer than usual and ultimately slower economic growth, resulting in lower returns for riskier assets. Investors have reacted favorably to the new normal hypothesis, if only evaluating it on a capital flow basis. However, I wonder is the new normal theory totally accurate, or are there parts of it that render more opportunity, especially in the equity markets?
I believe on a macroeconomic level, the new normal thesis makes sense, and many facets of the argument are presently occurring. Consumers are paying down debt at record levels, and there is plenty more of it to pay down before debt totals would approach normal levels (something like 5-10 years). Many industries are indeed suffering from overcapacity, and financial institutions are deleveraging and being forced to adapt to more stringent financial regulations which could lower profit levels and force institutions to provide higher reserve levels to make up for losses on impaired assets. Risk management and risk avoidance are the central priority in the investment community, which means money flows into fixed income products and away from riskier assets, like stocks and commodities. However, because of these conditions, greater opportunities are present in equities as poor macroeconomic data leads to massive equity selloffs where all companies are painted with a broad brush.
As such, high quality businesses become available for long periods of time at attractive prices. For example, for 6 months in a row, Verizon (VZ) has been trading anywhere from 26-33$ a share, and at a very cheap multiple in many different valuation areas. The stock yields 6-7% and throws off about 30-35 billion dollars a year of cash, with debt levels 3X cash flow. The company recently reported a nice quarter (it also spun off its holding in Frontier Communications) and the stock reacted favorably. The key point is the environment today is filled with broad negativity regarding the equity market and the result is there might be more opportunity in the equity market than many people believe, which is certainly not the “new normal” regarding equities.
Global Economic & Financial Markets Outlook: China Retreats, No Blowups from Europe, Chile Outperforms.
The most recent economic and financial news from continents around the world reveal a theme of the status quo. The various countries around mainland China continue to grow quickly, with questions about an impending real estate bubble in China, and what the repercussions are if the bubble pops? European countries released the results of the much publicized stress tests of their banks, yet questions remain about the true status of these institutions and the quality of their capital. India and Russia have been relatively news free regarding any economic problems, and these markets are relatively flat on the year.
Many international stock indexes remain underwater for the year, especially those related to China. The Shanghai composite is down -19.2%, the DJ China 88 Index retreated -22.0%, and DJ CBIN China 600 has lost -17.1% for the year. Certainly, all of these indexes might be a place to consider for investment, but require extensive research before putting down hard earned capital. On a positive note, a country which is investor friendly (stable government, transparency with rule of law, low tax rate) is Chile, and it has been reflected in the index returns during the year, +21.1%, as well as for the last three year, +9.8%. Anyone want some Chile, and I am not talking about Chile with beans?
Y H & C Investments: The Psychology of Investing: In the Midst of a Typical Summer, Where Are the Growth Markets and What to do About Them?
The summer of 2010 is 2/3 complete and is typical of most summers in the equity markets. Some volatility, lots of low volume days, and a continuation of the growth of a large overvaluation in a specific asset class. Two years ago during the summer, oil traded at 150 dollars a barrel. This year, I continue to believe the bond market is where the bubble continues to inflate. At some point, fixed income investors should be ready for severe pain when interest rates rise. One might also look at gold as another market loaded with bubble type risk. Amongst all the bubbles, it is more important for equity investors to look for potential markets which have bright growth prospects for many years in the future.
First, I think the small business market, in the U.S. and internationally, is a huge growth opportunity. In the U.S., around 60% of all businesses are considered small, and they drive most of the new hiring in the economy. Internationally, I would imagine small businesses outnumber large by a ratio of 3-1, and any products which can be sold to small business on a global scale offer a huge possibility for profits.
Second, health care related industries should be growth markets for many years to come, both domestically and globally. The need for better health care, especially personalized, is something which will benefit society in many different ways. Most important, it should improve quality of life and increase duration of life expectancy.
Third, alternative energy will be a growth industry for decades. Alternative energy in the U.S. accounts for just 1% of all energy produced. Solar, wind, electric grid improvements, electric cars, lithium production for batteries (just for you Sean), geothermal, and shale conversion are all areas to look into. With a massive market for energy, alternative resources which can lower their cost of production through quick consumer acceptance should ultimately reap the rewards of increasing market shares.
Fourth, the wireless and digital economies will see more consumer adoption for many years. With the growth of smart phones, wireless book readers, or any product which can be produced, distributed, and sold electronically, the digital economy will only become a more integral part of modern society. Younger generations are already increasingly forming habits on the internet using social networking, and look for the trend to continue.
Finally, a critical point is to focus on a specific industry and compare the competitive positions of the various companies in the segment. An investor only has so much capital available, so you want to find enterprises which you believe have the ability to last (balance sheet), as well as grow through intelligent reinvestment of profits. Ok, thanks for reading this month and as always, if you have any comments, questions, or concerns, please email me at info@y-hc.com.

As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.

Yale Bock, CFA
President, Y H & C Investments

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