It was an interesting week in the world as the stock market rolled along with new market leadership. It seems as big tech companies with lots of cash are seen as less risky than previously thought. Ya think with billions in net cash on a balance sheet, comfort can be taken the world might not be ending. In general, if one is a pessimist, the stock market is not the best place to be participating in. When the boogy man is always around the corner, it becomes harder and harder to pull the trigger on what might be a good opportunity, especially if one is allocating lots of money to a potential purchase. You can always count on the guys on wall street to say, ya know, that stock has had a great run, lets take some off the table and see if we can find something better. Not that you can, but that is how Wall Street thinks because they always know everything.
The Romney- Gingrich race proved a little interesting as Newt scored a victory on his own turf. With Florida's election on Tuesday, we know of at least one Las Vegas native, a certain owner and wife of the Venetian, which thinks Gingrich is worth getting behind (to the tune of $10 million). We will find out more in a few days, but I think Romney wins Florida by 5, then romps in the next 5-10 states and wraps the nomination up early. The real issue is can he beat Obama, and he will need to be able to mobilize the Gingrich's, Santorum's, Palin, Limbaugh, etc., to give himself the best chance. I hate getting to wrapped up in politics because like sports, it tends to always break your heart as the leaders are always so bad. Romney, however, has a long track record of achievement in everything he has ever touched, so we hopes he can get the job done.
The U.S. Economy grew at 1.8% during the last quarter, faster than previously thought. Still, the country needs better growth and fast-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/28/business/economy/us-economy-grows-at-modest-2-8-percent-rate.html?_r=1&ref=business
Facebook is filing to go public, and their payment engine Payvment is a heck of a startup. If your interested in where Facebook is headed, this video does a good job of leading you there-http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/27/keen-on-payvment-making-ecommerce-more-social-tctv/
The demise of Research In Motion is illustrative of why technology is such a treacherous field for investors. Technology is always changing, and with investing, change is not necessarily a good thing-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-27/innovate-without-mercy-is-the-enduring-lesson-of-rim-and-blackberry-view.html
The Super Bowl should be interesting, though it is hard for me to think Brady is not destined for a Joe Montana like performance. Still, if the Patriots cannot block the Giants front 4, it could be the same result as the last time they played in the big one. Hope everyone has a great weekend and if you have any comments or thoughts, please post them.
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/315009-2-value-stocks-under-2-dollars
Friday, January 27, 2012
Thursday, January 19, 2012
'Fast Money' Advice, The Stock Market and Smart Money, Kodak, and Apple's Push Into Education-
I was watching 'Fast Money', the trading show which airs at 2:00 pst on CNBC and thought I would comment on the 'advice' one gets from the so called experts on that program. First, you have an individual who has a book called, "Buy High, Sell Higher." A recent quote by Warren Buffett about the market was, ' The lower it goes, the more I buy.' The approaches could not offer a larger contrast in methodologies. Myself, I think the guy from Omaha is who you listen to as he has done pretty well and intuitively, the cheaper the price of an asset, the more one gets for their money. Obviously, much depends on what the asset consists of in terms of what you are getting when you buy it. In today's environment, market participants are avoiding companies with heavy debt loads. Many times, one avoids a lot of trouble that way. However, just because a company has a large debt load does not mean it may not be a good investment. One must compares debt levels to net cash, other marketable securities and assets, and the cash generated by the business to get a more precise understanding of whether a company is able to service the debt easily. In addition, knowing the interest rates, maturity terms, and debt covenants related to the debt issuance tells a buyer what restrictions are on the company with respect to servicing the debt.
Next, I thought I would mention my opinion of the constant stream of chartologists which come on the program. If you think investment bankers or successful portfolio managers like David Einhorn analyze charts to make investments, you are mistaken. In my opinion, the minute they pull out stock charts, run for the hills. You are better off going to company web sites, looking at earnings releases and reading 10-Q's, 8-K's, and Annual Reports. The charting stuff is a byproduct of financial results and the markets reaction to those results. Kindergartners look at pictures, people making investment decisions regarding thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millions of dollars have to read a ton of material.
Interesting article on smart Money and the stock Market-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/smart-money-owning-more-equities-says-finland-iq-study-of-who-buys-stock.html
Kodak finally files for Bankrutpcy- When they put digital cameras into phones, that was the kiss of death-http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2017274850_apuskodakbankruptcy.html
Apple is making a huge push into the education sector with ibooks and the Ipad- smart move as it is a massive market ripe for more efficiency-http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/19/apple-announces-ibook-2-a-new-textbook-experience-for-the-ipad
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/315009-2-value-stocks-under-2-dollars
Next, I thought I would mention my opinion of the constant stream of chartologists which come on the program. If you think investment bankers or successful portfolio managers like David Einhorn analyze charts to make investments, you are mistaken. In my opinion, the minute they pull out stock charts, run for the hills. You are better off going to company web sites, looking at earnings releases and reading 10-Q's, 8-K's, and Annual Reports. The charting stuff is a byproduct of financial results and the markets reaction to those results. Kindergartners look at pictures, people making investment decisions regarding thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millions of dollars have to read a ton of material.
Interesting article on smart Money and the stock Market-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/smart-money-owning-more-equities-says-finland-iq-study-of-who-buys-stock.html
Kodak finally files for Bankrutpcy- When they put digital cameras into phones, that was the kiss of death-http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2017274850_apuskodakbankruptcy.html
Apple is making a huge push into the education sector with ibooks and the Ipad- smart move as it is a massive market ripe for more efficiency-http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/19/apple-announces-ibook-2-a-new-textbook-experience-for-the-ipad
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/315009-2-value-stocks-under-2-dollars
Saturday, January 7, 2012
The Digital Revolution- Industry Winners and Is it Laying Waste to Some Long Standing Companies?
I was watching CNBC's Fast Money on Thursday when the question was posed, 'What companies won't be around at this time next year because of the digital revolution? The panelists named their contenders, or in this case pretenders, which included the likes of Best Buy, Barnes & Noble, and Live Nation. Instead of commenting on the merit of these picks, I think a more important consideration is to look at the digital issue from a different slant. Moreover, what trends could persist for a long time and why?
Clearly, in the information technology sector, the shift from personal computers to wireless devices, specifically tablets and smart phones, is a secular move where the latter unit sales have had a definitive impact on the slowing of the growth rate of unit sales of pc's.
Consistent with this theme will be the continued growth and usage of applications and software written and provided through wireless devices, especially on HTML5. Another massive secular change in the information technology space is the cloud computing movement, affecting both small businesses and large enterprises, as the cost structure is so advantageous it takes the traditional upfront licensing software licensing model and made all businesses rethink those large license fees. Renting applications and services and having them hosted in multiple locations will continue to take market share from the traditional licensing model.
Moving into a different industry, there will be a massive change in health care technology as the long awaited movement to electronic health records and data storage accelerates. E-perscriptions, diagnostic testing and recording through applications, and improved customer wait times through wireless notification apps all will see continued growth in adoption and may well explode in the next few years. A huge shift continues to take place in in media, where unique digital content is now being added to traditional distribution platforms as a way to bundle digital programs and not lose existing revenues from the existing media delivery methods. The recent ESPN-Comcast deal provides the model which will probably continue to be adopted by the large media players. I also think that pre-paid services will prove to be a big winner, especially in combination with money transfers on phones, gift cards, and debit cards. The movement into wireless payments by phone with services like Google Wallet and NFC based technologies will happen slowly at first, and gradually take hold as the convenience factor is a huge selling point because people do not want to carry five thousand credit and debit cards.
As for commentary on the CNBC question, I think speculating on what companies go out of business is a bit non professional and does a disservice to the employees and management of those companies. Certainly, we know that some businesses face larger secular headwinds than others, but the companies mentioned have strong market positions and I don't believe will be gone in a year, unless they get bought out and compensated for their existing enterprise values. The idea they will be gone in a year is nonsense. Please comment on the article or if you think there are any companies that might be winners in the existing digital space, or that may face large problems in the next year!!!!
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links) 1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/315009-2-value-stocks-under-2-dollars
Consistent with this theme will be the continued growth and usage of applications and software written and provided through wireless devices, especially on HTML5. Another massive secular change in the information technology space is the cloud computing movement, affecting both small businesses and large enterprises, as the cost structure is so advantageous it takes the traditional upfront licensing software licensing model and made all businesses rethink those large license fees. Renting applications and services and having them hosted in multiple locations will continue to take market share from the traditional licensing model.
Moving into a different industry, there will be a massive change in health care technology as the long awaited movement to electronic health records and data storage accelerates. E-perscriptions, diagnostic testing and recording through applications, and improved customer wait times through wireless notification apps all will see continued growth in adoption and may well explode in the next few years. A huge shift continues to take place in in media, where unique digital content is now being added to traditional distribution platforms as a way to bundle digital programs and not lose existing revenues from the existing media delivery methods. The recent ESPN-Comcast deal provides the model which will probably continue to be adopted by the large media players. I also think that pre-paid services will prove to be a big winner, especially in combination with money transfers on phones, gift cards, and debit cards. The movement into wireless payments by phone with services like Google Wallet and NFC based technologies will happen slowly at first, and gradually take hold as the convenience factor is a huge selling point because people do not want to carry five thousand credit and debit cards.
As for commentary on the CNBC question, I think speculating on what companies go out of business is a bit non professional and does a disservice to the employees and management of those companies. Certainly, we know that some businesses face larger secular headwinds than others, but the companies mentioned have strong market positions and I don't believe will be gone in a year, unless they get bought out and compensated for their existing enterprise values. The idea they will be gone in a year is nonsense. Please comment on the article or if you think there are any companies that might be winners in the existing digital space, or that may face large problems in the next year!!!!
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links) 1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/315009-2-value-stocks-under-2-dollars
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