The stock market is on a roll with the Nasdaq leading the way, up
over 20% in the last three months. Will it continue? Hard to believe
it stays on the current path, probably a few setbacks here or there.
Still, with bond yields where they are, it will take many years of 2 and
3% interest rates payments to match what you got in the last three
months in the equity markets. Yes, there is risk of loss, but you
already have big gains in a relatively short time frame.
Turnarounds
are always available in the stock market, as there are always companies
whose performance lags and has a very low stock price. Does that mean
they will make great investments? Not always, but it is certainly an
area to consider when investing. A few classic turnarounds over the
last few years would be McDonalds and Starbucks. Ronald McDonald at one
point was down to 12 bucks a share, and the big green machine was at 8
bucks a share only three years ago. Both have come roaring back and are
stronger than ever. Last year, Sears stock price was down over 80%.
In fairness, it is currently up 110% for this year, but I don't think it
is a great turnaround story.
Competing with Wal-mart, Target, Costco,
Hope Depot, and Lowe's, among others, is a really rough market. So what
other candidates are out there that look interesting?
The three
that come to mind would be HP, Best Buy, and RIMM (Research In Motion).
Full Disclosure: (Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments own HP and Best
Buy for clients and for himself). HP and Best Buy are market leaders
with businesses that generate large amounts of cash and have pretty
strong balance sheets. HP is the current market leader of printer
cartridges, and has actually expanded share over the last year. The
problem there is in their software, consulting, and hardware offerings.
With Best Buy, they have no debt and lots of cash and growth has
slowed, along with a few too many big box stores. Both are very
fixable, especially Best Buy, which should just shut down the non
performing locations. Time will tell as to how these perform but in the
meantime, you get paid dividends so time is on your side. RIMM is
tough because their products relative to Apple and Google are inferior.
A few more tidbits from the business and political world-
Here is a look at the Disney Mobile Strategy-http://techcrunch.com/2012/03/30/its-a-disney-party-dena-disney-team-up-to-launch-mobile-games-worldwide/
There
are two kinds of businesses- those that have problems, those that are
going to have problems. Yes, even Starbucks- http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/31/business/starbucks-tailors-its-experience-to-fit-to-european-tastes.html?ref=business
Obama is losing steam among young voters-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-30/obama-campus-fervor-losing-to-apathy-as-students-sour-on-2012.html
If you forgot the Covestor Next Invest conference, here is a link as it is available through April 21, 2012-presentations.inxpo.com/Shows/Covestor/R...
I
hope everyone is enjoying the spring. Stay happy and healthy and enjoy
the weekend. If you have any comments,on the blog or any articles,
please post them!!!
As always, on any company mentioned
here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing
involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any
investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk
tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and
anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA
credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any
charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the
latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock
and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
Friday, March 30, 2012
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Corzine's Possible Crime, Determination and Success, the United States Energy Picture Changes, and Market Volatility-
Press reports from both the NY Times and Wall Street Journal indicate ex Goldman Sachs CEO and former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine authorized the use of client money to pay back credit owed to JP Morgan Chase. So we should be shocked Corzine tried to use other people's money to save his firm when their risky bets went bad? Uh, no. What I find interesting is the hallmark of good investing is to not use debt, and when there is great value apparent, to load up the boat. Here, the opposite strategy was used. Load up the firm with leverage, and make big bets on questionable credits. It only proves in the investment world, people definately see what they want to see, which is also true in all aspects of life.
Mitt Romney moved closer to securing the Republican nomination with his win last week in the Illinois Primary. Romney will probably lose today in the Louisiana Primary, but pick up more delegates. What I find incredible is the reaction by the second and third place candidates, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, to the increasingly inevitable reality that Romney will be the nominee. Both Santorum and Gingrich siezed on the Etch A Sketch comment by a Romney aide that Romney has no consistency as a right wing Republican. Ok, great, so the party should forget the guy who has the most money, more than double the votes of the closest competitor, and a moderate position which could unseat a vulnerable sitting President of the United States? Instead, Republicans should opt for a brokered convention, and choose a guy who wants to put a space colony on the moon and an ex senator who lost his own state by 20 points in the last election? Wake up and smell the coffee and pack it in so the party can put its resources behind someone who has a chance. Will they do it? Nope, because self interest trumps reality almost every time.
Here is a great article showing why determination is so important in business. It details many major successes of companies which stuck it out when it got tough and are now prospering. Not an easy lesson to remember, especially when you are in the forest- make sure you read this-http://techcrunch.com/2012/03/24/get-rich-or-die-trying/
The United States is seeing a rapid change in the energy future of the country, thanks in large part to abundant natural gas and fracking technology. Take a look at this NY Times story-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/23/business/energy-environment/inching-toward-energy-independence-in-america.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=business
If you did not think the stock market was crazy enough, how about what took place on friday the 23 of March? BATS was supposed to go public, the stock opens at 15 bucks a share, and then the price drops to 1 cent a share. Then, the stock gets halted, the company says all trades during a two minute time frame are cancelled, and then withdraws the IPO. Prior to that, shares in Apple get hammered by 50 bucks a share and the stock gets halted. Mr. Market is all about volatility, now more than ever, regardless of what the VIX index says. Take a look- http://www.bloomberg.com/video/88905022/
Another interesting tidbit is the SEC is examining High Frequency Traders and their effect on the market. My thought is the greatest investor ever, Warren Buffett, says inactivity strikes him as an intelligent when it comes to investing. High Frequency Traders are all about rapid fire trading based on algorithms written by humans, who make mistakes. HFT trading has an effect on market making activity, which effect stock prices. Who says one cannot use other market participants "activity" against them?
If you forgot the Covestor Next Invest conference, here is a link as it is available through April 21, 2012-presentations.inxpo.com/Shows/Covestor/R...
I hope everyone is enjoying the spring. Here in Las Vegas, it was 88 yesterday with not a cloud in the sky. I hope you are a tad bit envious, but getting equally great weather as well. If you have a comment or question, do post them, please! Have a great week.
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
Mitt Romney moved closer to securing the Republican nomination with his win last week in the Illinois Primary. Romney will probably lose today in the Louisiana Primary, but pick up more delegates. What I find incredible is the reaction by the second and third place candidates, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, to the increasingly inevitable reality that Romney will be the nominee. Both Santorum and Gingrich siezed on the Etch A Sketch comment by a Romney aide that Romney has no consistency as a right wing Republican. Ok, great, so the party should forget the guy who has the most money, more than double the votes of the closest competitor, and a moderate position which could unseat a vulnerable sitting President of the United States? Instead, Republicans should opt for a brokered convention, and choose a guy who wants to put a space colony on the moon and an ex senator who lost his own state by 20 points in the last election? Wake up and smell the coffee and pack it in so the party can put its resources behind someone who has a chance. Will they do it? Nope, because self interest trumps reality almost every time.
Here is a great article showing why determination is so important in business. It details many major successes of companies which stuck it out when it got tough and are now prospering. Not an easy lesson to remember, especially when you are in the forest- make sure you read this-http://techcrunch.com/2012/03/24/get-rich-or-die-trying/
The United States is seeing a rapid change in the energy future of the country, thanks in large part to abundant natural gas and fracking technology. Take a look at this NY Times story-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/23/business/energy-environment/inching-toward-energy-independence-in-america.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=business
If you did not think the stock market was crazy enough, how about what took place on friday the 23 of March? BATS was supposed to go public, the stock opens at 15 bucks a share, and then the price drops to 1 cent a share. Then, the stock gets halted, the company says all trades during a two minute time frame are cancelled, and then withdraws the IPO. Prior to that, shares in Apple get hammered by 50 bucks a share and the stock gets halted. Mr. Market is all about volatility, now more than ever, regardless of what the VIX index says. Take a look- http://www.bloomberg.com/video/88905022/
Another interesting tidbit is the SEC is examining High Frequency Traders and their effect on the market. My thought is the greatest investor ever, Warren Buffett, says inactivity strikes him as an intelligent when it comes to investing. High Frequency Traders are all about rapid fire trading based on algorithms written by humans, who make mistakes. HFT trading has an effect on market making activity, which effect stock prices. Who says one cannot use other market participants "activity" against them?
If you forgot the Covestor Next Invest conference, here is a link as it is available through April 21, 2012-presentations.inxpo.com/Shows/Covestor/R...
I hope everyone is enjoying the spring. Here in Las Vegas, it was 88 yesterday with not a cloud in the sky. I hope you are a tad bit envious, but getting equally great weather as well. If you have a comment or question, do post them, please! Have a great week.
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
Friday, March 16, 2012
Free Invite to the Covestor Next Invest Virtual Conference
Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments cordially invite you to the Covestor Next
Invest Virtual Conference. No pressure, I know you are busy. If it works for
you, stop by my booth and have a look. If you are not interested but know
someone who might be, please feel free to forward this to them. If you are
interested in attending, copy the following link and put it in your browser.
Thank you for your valuable time.
presentations.inxpo.com/Shows/Covestor/R...
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
presentations.inxpo.com/Shows/Covestor/R...
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Romney Closes In, Choosing Friends Wisely, Electric Cars Face A Setback, and Walmart Buys A Facebook App!
Well, it looks like the European saga continues on, though the Greek situation
may be improving rather quickly, as far as funding is concerned. After three
years of talking about it, thinking about, discussing it, negotiating it, my
gosh, get on with it. Whenever politicians get involved these days, you know it
is going to take forever and get done in a less than thoughtful manner.
Just a note to all subscribers and followers that I am sorry the last post included non workable links. Will do everything in my power to make sure all posts are as functionable as possible in the future.
Mitt Romney edges closer and closer to becoming a mathmatical certainty for the Republican nomination. After Alabama and Mississippi this week, at some point other Republicans will start to call for the other candidates to drop out. Whether they listen or care is another story. Watching Newt and Santorum all these months makes me think they could care less and are willing to help the party go down in flames to further their personal ambitions, as unrealistic as they may be.
The Steve Wynn-Kazuo Okada fued shows how important it is to choose your partners as carefully as possible-http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304450004577275490985209450.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
Electric cars face a longer road- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-05/electric-car-producers-shun-u-s-loans-as-post-solyndra-red-tape-increases.html
Walmart buys a photo sharing and card application from Facebook, showing investors that is still a valuable market- http://techcrunch.com/2012/03/11/walmart-buys-facebook-birthday-and-holiday-reminder-app-social-calendar/
Earnings reports are winding down, and it should be an interesting end to the first quarter. Will the economy accelerate as the year progresses or will it start to slow down? The first quarter is usually a tepid one, and things slow down in the summer as well. Time will tell and I hope it goes well for all readers. Let me know what you think will happen with the economy!!!
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
Just a note to all subscribers and followers that I am sorry the last post included non workable links. Will do everything in my power to make sure all posts are as functionable as possible in the future.
Mitt Romney edges closer and closer to becoming a mathmatical certainty for the Republican nomination. After Alabama and Mississippi this week, at some point other Republicans will start to call for the other candidates to drop out. Whether they listen or care is another story. Watching Newt and Santorum all these months makes me think they could care less and are willing to help the party go down in flames to further their personal ambitions, as unrealistic as they may be.
The Steve Wynn-Kazuo Okada fued shows how important it is to choose your partners as carefully as possible-http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304450004577275490985209450.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
Electric cars face a longer road- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-05/electric-car-producers-shun-u-s-loans-as-post-solyndra-red-tape-increases.html
Walmart buys a photo sharing and card application from Facebook, showing investors that is still a valuable market- http://techcrunch.com/2012/03/11/walmart-buys-facebook-birthday-and-holiday-reminder-app-social-calendar/
Earnings reports are winding down, and it should be an interesting end to the first quarter. Will the economy accelerate as the year progresses or will it start to slow down? The first quarter is usually a tepid one, and things slow down in the summer as well. Time will tell and I hope it goes well for all readers. Let me know what you think will happen with the economy!!!
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
Sunday, March 4, 2012
So Far So Good For Stocks in 2012, Super Tuesday Approaches, The Future of Mobile in China, and Yelp's IPO-
Up to this point of 2012, the year has been very good for investors
in stock markets across the globe. All over the planet, indexes are up
anywhere between 10-25% for the year, which speaks for itself,
especially when compared to money market rates or Treasury bond yields
of 2-3% for the 10 and 30 year durations. Certainly, return is stock
specific and if a company reports poor top line growth or misses an
earnings per share estimate, chances are it will get punished. Still, I
think one reason markets have performed so well in 2012 is first,
buyers get more for their money with equities.
Dividend yields are typically higher than any treasury bond yield, and corporate bond prices are still very expensive. Why take the risk of a company defaulting on its debt obligations when you can participate in the profits at a cheaper price? Second, as an article later in the post explains, savers are being penalized for saving their money. With that the case, people vote with their pocketbooks and look for a better deal. In this situation, they have turned to the equity markets, though in a still rather modest manner. Look out though, if bond yields start to rise as money will come pouring out of the bond market. It has not happened yet, but it certainly could over the next 12-36 months.
Super Tuesday approaches and Mr. Romney is trying to put the nails in the coffin sooner rather than later. I am sure he will lose a few states on Tuesday, but if he wins Ohio and more than 5 on Tuesday, it would not be surprising to see other Republican leaders start to call for the other candidates to step aside. As a Republican, some of the things fellow members of the party say and do just astound me with their stupidity. For example, why would Rush Limbaugh say what he said about the Georgetown student? What is there to be gained from that? Also, what Christ Christy said about Warren Buffett's tax ideas? Every person is entitled to his opinion about tax policy. If you are a politician, don't you want to attract as broad a constituency as possible to garner support for your ideas? The object is to have people join the party, not piss them off so bad they are repulsed by you.
Not hard to understand why the approval rate for Congress is now approaching 10%, an all time record low.
Nice article on where the future of Mobile Phones are in China- http://techcrunch.com/2012/03/03/china-next-mobile-boom/
Yelp goes public- hurray- not many impressed- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203986604577257193903928040.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
Good discussion about the lack of benefits for savers and interest rate policy-
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/04/business/low-rates-for-savers-are-reason-for-complaint-fair-game.html?_r=1&ref=business
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
Dividend yields are typically higher than any treasury bond yield, and corporate bond prices are still very expensive. Why take the risk of a company defaulting on its debt obligations when you can participate in the profits at a cheaper price? Second, as an article later in the post explains, savers are being penalized for saving their money. With that the case, people vote with their pocketbooks and look for a better deal. In this situation, they have turned to the equity markets, though in a still rather modest manner. Look out though, if bond yields start to rise as money will come pouring out of the bond market. It has not happened yet, but it certainly could over the next 12-36 months.
Super Tuesday approaches and Mr. Romney is trying to put the nails in the coffin sooner rather than later. I am sure he will lose a few states on Tuesday, but if he wins Ohio and more than 5 on Tuesday, it would not be surprising to see other Republican leaders start to call for the other candidates to step aside. As a Republican, some of the things fellow members of the party say and do just astound me with their stupidity. For example, why would Rush Limbaugh say what he said about the Georgetown student? What is there to be gained from that? Also, what Christ Christy said about Warren Buffett's tax ideas? Every person is entitled to his opinion about tax policy. If you are a politician, don't you want to attract as broad a constituency as possible to garner support for your ideas? The object is to have people join the party, not piss them off so bad they are repulsed by you.
Not hard to understand why the approval rate for Congress is now approaching 10%, an all time record low.
Nice article on where the future of Mobile Phones are in China- http://techcrunch.com/2012/03/03/china-next-mobile-boom/
Yelp goes public- hurray- not many impressed- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203986604577257193903928040.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
Good discussion about the lack of benefits for savers and interest rate policy-
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/04/business/low-rates-for-savers-are-reason-for-complaint-fair-game.html?_r=1&ref=business
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
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