QE 3, Middle East Mayhem, The Debates, and Much More!

The summer ended, and fall started with a very eventful week. The continuing insanity which is the middle east showed once again the region is not a place which can ever be thought of as stable. Ben Bernanke unleashed the financial version of being "All In," with the announcement to buy up to $80 billion of mortgage backed assets per month (in some form or another). The focus of the Fed has completely become reducing the unemployment rates, essentially saying it has inflation under control. Time will tell about that as ignoring inflation usually is not a wise move for central bankers. Hmmm, could it be a coincidence we have a presidential election coming up in 50 days or so? No, I knew you did not think so either.

Speaking of the little contest known as the Presidential election, well, there are no words to describe what took place with respect to their handling of the events in the middle east. Sorry, yes there are, "MISGUIDED. STUPID. MORONIC. CHEERLEADERS. BLEEP-BLEEPS."

You have a U.S. government whose responsibility is to protect U.S. citizens, diplomats, and assets throughout the world. In Libya, a U.S. ambassador was killed on the anniversary of 9-11. You would think the government would provide extra security, or arrange for extra security for those people in countries where extra danger could be present. Instead, the country saw valuable people, people who have wives and families die. The radical muslims blame the attacks on a film made in the United States, a country which has what is called the first amendment, the right to freedom of speech. One of the great things about the U.S. is you have the right to say you disagree with things. Apparently, nobody can make anything which would in any remote way criticize Islam, or the prophet Muhammed. In the U.S., people make films advocating Naziism, show people defacating or uriniating on all kinds of religions, and plenty of kind of pornography, and I have never seen the kind of rioting and violence which goes on in the middle east.

Mitt Romney gets attacked by many members of the media for saying the U.S. government should support freedom of speech. The U.S. government asked Youtube to pull down the video, and Google refused here in the U.S. Essentially, what has happened is the media are tools of the campaigns. Forget about neutrality, that has long been thrown out the window. On the right, you have Fox. On the left, you have CNN and MSNBC. The degree of cheerleading depends on who is doing the rooting. The only problem is politics is not a game, it is serious business, and it has real world consequences. You know, like a country with radical islamic leaders running it, Iran, potentially getting a nuclear weapon. It is a country which has stated it wants to wipe other countries off the earth. There are no extra points for a good routine here. You had families lose their head this week, those kids will not see that parent again. Real consequences result when leaders do not do their jobs and instead are focused on public perception. It is tragic the media does not ask the tough questions which need to be asked- sis boom bah!

Regarding QE3, yes, the market went up nicely last week. There is a very high probability it will continue to go up through the end of the year. However, in many instances, the cure is worse than the disease. When you are running trillion dollar deficits with no end in sight, and have nearly 50 billion dollars of unfunded liabilities, eventually there are consequences. As someone who tries to benefit when asset prices are not accurate, in many instances, especially financial matters, things are seldom what they seem. The equities market has been performing well, and corporate profits are enormous, which has a great deal to do with the market going up. However, the underlying currency, the dollar, faces a terrible financial situation with a very weak balance sheet and deficits which continue to grow. In addition, there is no indication the U.S. has leadership which can enact policies to solve the enormous financial challenges which face the country.

Having taught history and been a basketball coach, I am very familiar with competition and how things can change rapidly. In contests, there are ebbs and flows, but many times, the status quo exists, until, bam, it does not. You are ahead and you stop scoring and lose by 10. In World War 2, Holland, Belgium, and France were thought to be unattackable. They fell in less than a week. This presidentail campaign is a long haul, and a terribly bitter struggle. Both sides want to win badly. The country is deeply divided. I suspect the final chapter has yet to be written, but one can be certain November is coming quickly, and all eyes will be watching the presidential debates and anything else which could affect the outcome.

Nice interview with Zillow CEO-http://techcrunch.com/2012/09/16/make-sure-your-company-is-ready-for-ipo-prime-time/

About time, HP is getting into the smartphone business. Very good chance it could be a case of too little, too late. You are going head to head with Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc. Not for the faint of heart. http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_21548816/hewlett-packard-developing-smart-phone-computer-business-dwindles

Apparently, the world's largest money manager things stocks are the place to be. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-12/fink-belies-being-boring-telling-customers-to-buy-stocks.html

Very interesting story about a gold bug. http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012/sep/16/gold-worth-7-million-found-house-after-nevada-man-/

Mark Zuckerberg fires back, and the stock had a very good week-http://marketday.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/14/13867775-facebook-stock-recovers-sort-of-after-zuckerberg-speaks?lite

I hope everyone has a great week, and please comment on the blog, regardless of whether you agree or disagree!!

Y H & C Investments, Yale Bock, and the family of Yale Bock own positions in securities mentioned in the blog post. Investing in stocks can lead to the complete loss of your capital. As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.

Here are some Seeking Alpha articles Yale Bock has written about specific companies.

Political Conventions, A Cool New App, and Deflation vs Inflation-

If you really want to engage in fantasy, watch the political conventions of both the Republicans and the Democrats. I think most reasonable people would agree it is a choice between bad and worse. As a Republican, the fact that the party continues to support positions many find idealogically very extreme is just stupid. I won't bring up the controversial ones, let me just introduce one that many people are outraged over, and that is internet gaming. New reports surface that the Republican party will not make a deal on internet gaming. Being a moron is not an attractive sales pitch. So let's adopt the be an idiot position- brilliant. I still think Mitt Romney has been successful his whole life, and will take my chances with his leadership any day.


On the other side of the spectrum, this week you will see a group of people who actually believe things are getting better in this country. Record high levels of debt, one in 6 people in poverty, 50 million on food stamps, but things are improving. Again, being a imbicile is not an attractive sales pitch. Is there any wonder why there are so many people fed up with the political process?

One of the great things about business is you can measure success and failure. If the business loses less money than you did last year by 50%, that could be considered improvement. If the company makes 10% or 20% more money than it did last year, you could consider that success. If a company pays down a bunch of debt, that might be a signal the company is improving it's financial condition. It is no wonder why many of the most talented people in the world go into the private sector, and usually stay there. Those who do serve in the public sector say they consider it a privledge, but then when they are done, they go right back to the private sector.

Does it ever end with the Facebook flop? Here is an article on the CFO who is responsible for a market cap loss of $50 billion so far. Of course, the final chapter has yet to be written. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/09/03/david-ebersman-the-man-behind-facebook%e2%80%99s-i-p-o-debacle/?ref=business

There is more money to be made writing good apps than maybe anything else- more proof with this one, and very applicable all over the world-http://techcrunch.com/2012/09/04/organic-growth-only-grocery-list-app-buy-me-a-pie-claims-2m-ios-downloads-adds-gifting-functionality/

Inflation versus deflation- two really bad alternatives-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-04/iphone-price-cuts-send-bond-inflation-bets-to-11-year-low-1-.html

Thank you for reading the blog this week, and if you have any thoughts or questions on the subjects, please post them!!!
Y H & C Investments, Yale Bock, and the family of Yale Bock own positions in securities mentioned in the blog post. Investing in stocks can lead to the complete loss of your capital. As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.

Why Investing is Great, Election Thoughts, and Other News from the Business World-

The summer has been very interesting, and in many ways very rewarding for me personally. The rewards I mention are not financial, though I am sure you would agree there is nothing wrong with a few extra bucks in your pocket. No, what I am talking about is the gratification that comes from being associated with people who in some way you may have helped. Specifically, there are people who are clients of mine who in some minor way I have helped through investing. For example, I recently recieved notice that a client who opened a new business had the enterprise go live with a very interesting business. We talked about the idea and he has refined it into a product which has a great deal of potential. One never knows how these things play out as the business world is tough in almost every area, certainly in markets which offer large rewards. Still, helping people start and reach for their dreams is wonderful and very gratifying.



Another example is a client who is very diligent recently sent me an email notifying me of an upcoming appearance on television for her small business. She is a super lady who tries very hard with her candy business, and I was overjoyed to see the television spot and I hope it really helped with her orders.



A few other anecdotal stories deserve mention as well. A young man recently came to me with some money he wants to invest. He is only 13 years old but he has already saved some capital and wants to see it grow. He is also interested in learning about investing so I gave him some informtion about books to read and how to pursue his objectives. As I get older, and I think most people who have had success financially might agree with this, more focus and satisfaction comes with helping others attain their dreams. You realize people are not that concerned with rates of return, but having enough money so they have the freedom to do what they want to do. It may be retiring early, buying a new house, renovating a new house, starting a new business, expanding an existing enterprise, sending a child to college, whatever. Investing money successfully can help people do those things, but it certainly is not easy.



Investing is spending money today so you will have more money in the future. Just as important, is how any individual is forced to grow intellectually by investing. You can spend money without knowing anything about what you are investing in, which in my mind is not intelligent. When you invest and work at it, you learn about the entire world, about what companies are doing all over the globe, and almost every sphere in the world affects your companies. Weather, sports, politics, culture, music, fashion, nothing should be ruled out. As a result, an investor is constantly forced to learn, which means you are growing. You grow or you die. While you are at it, there is plenty of struggle and adversity, but the rewards are well worth the effort.

We are now, as Lincoln said, "Getting to the stub of it.", regarding the upcoming presidential election. The conventions are in the next two weeks and the debates will follow. I recently read where only 5%, or 15 millon people out of 300 million in the country, will decide the outcome. I am sure you might agree neither side will probably call you after they win to see what your thoughts are on how to proceed forward. What will be very interesting is to see how both parties approach the election. The important issue is which leader is better able to lead the country in the future. Politics is a subject which you cannot avoid and there is much to hate about it. However, the next few months will be interesting for any observer, whether you vote or not.

Apple defeated Samsung in a trial regarding patents for phones. The result is the smart phone business will get more competitive. The companies most affected by the decision are Apple, Google, and Microsoft, all financial and cultural heavyweights. Personally, I think the first two are in the strongest positions and I think they have all been great businesses. However, in the future I would not go against Apple or Google.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-25/apple-patent-victory-seen-spurring-wider-range-of-smartphones.html

Mario Batali is a legend in the culinary world and has some great advice for any enterpreneur in this interview-

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/26/business/in-mario-batalis-kitchen-please-refrain-from-shouting.html?ref=business

Apple is introducing a new mini-Ipad and a new I-phone in the fall.

https://allthingsd.com/20120825/confirmed-new-ipad-mini-will-debut-in-october-after-latest-iphones-september-bow/

John Bogle is a giant in investing world and has some great advice for any investor. I personally disagree with his ideas about index investing versus active management, but I do think index investing is a great way to invest for a lot of people. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2018994009_bogleworry26xml.html

The online poker controversy just gets worse. http://www.lvrj.com/business/online-poker-s-window-of-opportunity-may-be-closing-167464895.html

Finally, I hope all readers have a great week, if you have any comments, thoughts, questions, or ideas about the blog post, please share them! Thank you for reading.

Y H & C Investments, Yale Bock, and the family of Yale Bock own positions in securities mentioned in the blog post. Investing in stocks can lead to the complete loss of your capital
. As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.

Here are some Seeking Alpha articles Yale Bock has written about specific companies.

Romney/ Ryan vs Obama/Biden, California, and the State of the Market-

The dog days of August are on us and the never ending summer heat is at its zenith. Hopefully in a few weeks, temperatures will moderate some and the environment will turn pleasant. The mood in the country is as difficult as the weather. In the forefront of anyone with a pulse is the upcoming presidential election. Voters will face a clear choice between the Romney-Ryan ticket and the incumbant Obama-Biden pair.

I would imagine both sides would agree the country will deserve the winner. A legitimate question which faces the victor is can they work with the defeated side? The advertising campaigns on both sides are doing everything and saying anything possible to discredit the opponent. Staring those same people in the face after you win presents a major problem. One might say it does not matter, but it does and one only needs to look at the lack of accomplishment of our current government to prove the point.


Governor Romney brought up the case of what is happening in California as potentially what could happen to the United States if our government does not start to address the financial issues it has. Naturally, Jerry Brown, the governor of California, says Romney is misguided. California is running a deficit of 10 billion dollars, up 50% from what it thought it might run. The state is losing citizens and businesses because of the financial problems, delusional legislature, and a myriad of regulatory red tape which would frustrate any reasonable business owner. The New York Times recently had a piece in it about how France is going to raise tax rates to 75% for millionaires, and many business owners in France have already left, or are considering leaving. California is facing the same issue and it will continue until people with common sense figure out how to come to an agreement on practical rules for spending and taxing.


Stock market psychology is a reflection of what is happening in all over the world, and I recently read where sentiment about the market is at a 27 year low. Very few people have any interest in the equity market. For experienced investors, this is music to their ears as they want to invest when everyone hates stocks because you get better prices. Time will tell as to how things play out, but I know which camp I am in.


The Olympics ended yesterday and there were no tragic incidents. I am happy the games went so well for the British as they had a smashingly successful two week run. Apparently, the shopping really picked up and certainly the US performance helped on that end.


Facebook's lockup period ends pretty soon and if you thought the selling was bad before this-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/13/technology/facebooks-stock-has-suffered-but-some-investors-see-value-now.html?_r=1&ref=business



If you wonder why Mitt Romney does not want to release his tax returns, look no further than this story-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/us/politics/sheldon-adelsons-dealings-in-china-are-under-investigation.html?ref=business

Thank you for reading the blog, and if you have any comments or thoughts about the blog, or thoughts, please post them!

Y H & C Investments, Yale Bock, and the family of Yale Bock own positions in securities mentioned in the blog post. Investing in stocks can lead to the complete loss of your capital. As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.

Here are some Seeking Alpha articles Yale Bock has written about specific companies.

Summer Fun, Mr. Market is Blue, and Romney's Strategy-

The summer is continuing to wind down, and oh, what a few months it has been, in all kinds of ways. My focus is the markets, and specifically the stock market. One of the things I always notice is when things get difficult in the stock market, all of the same detractors and naysayers love to pile on and emphasize the world is going to end. I write from the perspective of someone who is long the market, meaning over the long term it will go up. What is really tough for stock market investors is there have been so many events which lead people to say 'Why bother with this nonsense?'



Over the last few months, investors have gone through the continuing problems in Europe, the Facebook IPO debacle, and this week's Knight trading malfunctions. On a daily basis, you see companies which miss earnings estimates by a few cents, and the market value of the stock will get hammered by 20-30% or more. I have seen stocks go down by 50% or more with downward guidance. Are these punishments really fitting of the crime of reduced guidance? I think not.



You have a situation where Mr. Market, as Ben Graham calls it, is in a mood which looks at the extreme negative all the time. No company gets the benefit of the doubt, regardless of the circumstance. As an investor, the valuations are compelling because of what is seen as uncertainty. However, much of the uncertainty will eventually end. The United States will eventually have our presidential election, and one candidate will win. Europe's debt crisis will result in a restructuring of the Euro currency, or the countries will find a way to work through the issues. China will eventually show improved economic growth, or will go through a lull. All of these problems will eventually reach a conclusion. What will also remain constant is companies which are making hundreds of millions or billions of dollars will continue to try to sell more products and services. You invest in these strong companies because they can endure the problems and work through them.



A nice article in the NY Times on the Long Term Value of Internet Businesses-http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/08/03/the-long-term-value-of-internet-companies/?ref=business



Business Insider tells us the favorite U.S. stocks- http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-9-stocks-america-2012-7

Defending Mitt Romney's election strategy-http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-07-20/a-qualified-defense-of-the-romney-campaign#r=related-rail



Thank you for reading the blog and I hope you have a great rest of the summer. Please be healthy and and best wishes to you and your family members. If you have any comments, thoughts, or questions regarding the blog, please post them!!!!

Y H & C Investments, Yale Bock, and the family of Yale Bock own positions in securities mentioned in the blog post. Investing in stocks can lead to the complete loss of your capital. As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.

Here are some Seeking Alpha articles Yale Bock has written about specific companies.

Thoughts on Colorado, Questioning Facebook, and How to Market Your Business-

I hope all readers will join me in sending their thoughts and prayers for the victims of the senseless tragedy in Aurora, CO this past Friday morning. I have been doing quite a bit of reading and thinking about this and thought I would offer my perspective.



First, something like this certainly makes one think about your own situation and how fortunate you are to have a family and life which are healthy. One never knows what will happen in the world, and nothing is guaranteed. The events in Colorado vividly illustrate the unpredictability of the world we live in. As a father of a 4 year old daughter, my heart breaks for the parents of the 6 year old girl who lost her life. I think leaders should really think about ways events like this can be eliminated, or at the very least, minimize the damage from. Society is never going to be able to prevent things like this from happening. However, an analysis can be done on what factors contributed to this event and how someone who came from a very good family and had a promising future turns into a mass murderer.



Personally, I believe society should look very closely at automatic machine guns and think long and hard at who should have access to these weapons. Does a citizen working in a potentially dangerous industry have to have an automatic machine gun? Maybe. Does a citizen not working in these situations need an automatic machine gun? Probably not.



My own thinking on the role of content producers certainly has been changed as I think if content has no social redeeming quality, there should be restrictions on who can see it. Moreover, people ages 5-18 who have impressionable minds are the most at risk to being affected by violence, sex, vulgarity, or anything which might alter how they see the world. Currently, movie studios have their way as anything can be shown to anyone. I saw a film the other night which had nothing in it which had social value. Does that mean every piece of content must have social value? No, but it means if you want to show it to everyone, it has to at least have some merit. If all you are going to show is violence, vulgarity, sex, blood, gore, and special effects, uh no, not everyone can see it.



In the investment world, the environment remains the same as we are in the midst of the summer, and the focus continues to be on the problems in Europe. This week brings an avalanche of earnings reports from some of the biggest companies in the world- Apple, Starbucks, McDonalds, etc. I would suspect the reports will be pretty strong with weakness in Europe, and a cautious outlook about the next 6 months.



The Olympics are almost here and I cannot wait to see them. The opening ceremony is always great as the pageantry and pomp never fail to disappoint, and I am sure our British friends will do a great job. I only hope the security is great and nothing violent happens to mar the games. I hope you enjoy them as well.

At least one observer is not sold on Facebook-http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427972/the-facebook-fallacy/



Marketing is the most crucial issue for all businesses and here is a great story about how one group achieved great success on a limited budget-http://techcrunch.com/2012/07/22/reaching-10m-downloads-and-the-guerrilla-marketing-tactics-we-used-to-get-there/



Many shareholders are voting no on executive compensation- as they should be-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-19/more-shareholders-are-just-saying-no-on-executive-pay.html




Thank you for reading the blog and I hope you have a happy and healthy week.  If you have any comments, thoughts, or questions about the blog, please post them!!!!

Y H & C Investments, Yale Bock, and the family of Yale Bock own positions in securities mentioned in the blog post. Investing in stocks can lead to the complete loss of your capital. As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.

Here are some Seeking Alpha articles Yale Bock has written about specific companies.

Recession is Built In, the T-Hause, and Facebook gets the London Olympics-

July 4 has come and gone, and the summer Olympics in London are rapidly approaching. Summer is usually a more relaxed time, and the record hot temperatures across the United States have literally put a little fire under most people. In stock markets across the world, trading volumes are usually light and this year is no exception. In looking at the volumes over the last few weeks, the average volume is half of what it might be during the fall or winter. As a result, the volatility is more pronounced. With the profit warnings from Cummings, Nike, AMD, and the bankruptcy of Patriot Coal, investors are very nervous over the possibility of a global recession.

From my perspective, in many ways, the world economy is already in a recession. Unofficial unemployment in the U.S. is already 15%, and that does not include the underemployed. In many mature European countries, you have official unemployment rates hovering well above 10% and youth unemployment above 20% and in some cases closer to 50%. Stock markets have done very little for 15 years, and bond yields are incredibly low. Many believe the continued low interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve are the proper medicine to fight deflation. Many disagree as well, sighting a persistently sluggish economy and lack of jobs and hiring in the private sector. I think most people are sick of the finger pointing and want results, not excuses or blaming the opposing political sides. If people want bickering, they can look at their young children and teenagers and get enough disagreement to last a lifetime.

Let me include a shameless plug for a new business I am a part of, the T-Haus:(www.californiathaus.com).



I have been drinking loose leaf tea since my sister in law Jacci Aronson introduced it to me last December. Drinking tea has become a wonderful daily habit for me and I thoroughly enjoy preparing a different tea each morning and evening. If you have any gift needs or would like to try drinking loose leaf tea, you might go to the site and call Jacci for more information. She will certainly provide you plenty of information to make the experience enjoyable. (If you have any interest at all, just enter your email address and you will be added to our mailing list).


Social Media is just so powerful and it is helping change the business landscape very quickly. Those who embrace it will prosper, those who don't will fall by the wayside. Here is a nice piece about a fashion related startup- http://techcrunch.com/2012/07/11/social-media-for-the-fashion-conscious-chicisimo-chalks-up-800k-in-angel-funding/

The Olympics are going to be integrated with Facebook. Lots of people doubt the company, but I am not one of them-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/business/media/nbc-and-facebook-announce-facebook-partnership.html?ref=business

Nice article about how to help achieve your goals-http://www.businessinsider.com/five-steps-for-achieving-your-goals-2012-7

Finally, I know it is hot, hot, hot, so make sure you drink plenty of water, or tea- hint, hint, to make sure you stay hydrated. Have a great rest of the week and weekend.

Y H & C Investments, Yale Bock, and the family of Yale Bock own positions in securities mentioned in the blog post. Investing in stocks can lead to the complete loss of your capital. As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
Here are some Seeking Alpha articles Yale Bock has written about specific companies.