The great UCLA Men's College Basketball coach John Wooden had a very important quote: "Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." So many investors in almost every asset class simply do not prepare before investing their hard earned money. I have been as guilty as anybody. During my first attempt at investing, I spent 5,000 bucks on buying stock in Starbucks, 2,500 on America On Line, and 2,500 on a company called Ultrafem. It was 1993 or so and I spent a ton of gas driving up and down Southern California looking at Starbucks locations- I still own it, and have added plenty more, and yes, it has done well. America On Line at one point was a 41 bagger, but I sold too late, but still did well. However, Ultrafem was an alternative to women's tampons, the management were crooks, and you could see from one quarter's results they were a mess. I had yet to learn enough about reading annual reports, 10-Q's, 8-K's, insider trades, and other due diligence methods, but it worked out ok.
Still, whether it is stocks, bonds, currencies, real estate, commodities, venture capital, or anything involved with risking your funds, look before you leap, and look very hard. No is a good word with investing. No, no, no, no, no. The great Peter Lynch used to say you have to turn over a lot of rocks before you find a possible opportunity. With currencies, maybe look at the current trade account (deficit or sirplus), interest rate differentials, inflation differentials, fiscal sirplus or deficit, and political environment. You might even make a check list of what to look at before you spend your money. Don't forget Wooden's quote as he won 11 NCAA championships in 13 years for a reason.
The Jeremy Lin story just gets better and better, which is really awesome- take a look at this from Techcrunch on Siezing the Moment:http://techcrunch.com/2012/02/18/seize-your-opportunities-like-jeremy-lin/
Interesting business model emerges on lending your car to strangers for cash:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/technology/car-sharing-companies-link-owners-with-renters.html?_r=1&ref=business
What a mess with Steve Wynn as all the dirty laundry comes out:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203358704577233052477385494.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
It will be another interesting week on wall street as the Greece drama continues to unfold. Three years into this and the politicians still cannot make any decisions. Does anyone wonder why Europe has such competitive issues? Many believe Germany will call the shots there for a long time, but they also benefit from a weak Euro as their exports continue to gain share. A stronger currency does not help them at all.
Politically, all eyes are on Michigan as it may be that the Gettysburgh of this election is in Romney's home state. I still think he is the best candidate, but the hard line republicans just don't want any part of him. If Santorum or Gingrich is the nominee, Obama might win 45 states and cruise by 30 points. At least Romney gives the party a fighting chance, but if he loses, he just takes his 200 million with him and says good luck. I hope everyone has a great week and if you have any questions, comments, or thoughts on the blog post, please share them!!
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/375621-unilife-strives-to-be-a-major-player-in-medical-devices
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
5) http://seekingalpha.com/article/347561-cardionet-a-market-beater-or-a-value-trap
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Buffett vs Gross, Whitney Houston's Sad News, Digital Theft, and Why Persistence Pays Off!!!
Interesting contrast between Bill Gross, the largest manager of fixed income in the world at PIMCO, and Warren Buffett, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Gross is heavily invested in U.S. Treasuries and Buffett believes they should come with a warning sign that says, "Hazardous to your financial health." My own belief is U.S. Treasuries are the biggest sucker bet because of the high prices, low yields, and low expectations for inflation. The view in the financial world is that it is the best asset to own which is negatively correlated to stock markets or commodities. Essentially, by owning treasuries you are betting the bond market bull run over the last 15 years keeps going unabated. There is a quote in finance that trees don't grow to the sky, but that is just my opinion. I would even lean more towards buying an ETF that shorts 10 year or 30 year treasuries, but you need a real strong stomach for that, and it has not worked for the last few years. Doesn't mean it won't work, but you could definately feel some pain if Europe falls apart. Here is a link to what Jim Cramer thinks about the debate (fron CNBC.com) :Cramer's Pick in Buffett vs Gross Bond Battle
The news that Whitney Houston died yesterday was sad. She sold over 170 million albums world wide and in her prime could really bring it. It is also a reminder if you don't take care of yourself and have good healthy habits you are going to run into problems. I look at this situation, or Michael Jackson, where you have people who have every reason to live and are self destructive and just think it is a waste of talent. Unfortunately, the most common thing in the world is wasted talent and intelligence. What is rare are guys like Buffett and Munger, who built themselves into billionaires, and built Berkshire Hathaway into a multi-billion dollar enterprise and helped build the wealth of tens of thousands of people. Yet Buffett takes more criticism these days than ever before. You have to wonder if there is anything in the world that is unassailable. Here is a link from Bloomberg on the Whitney Houston Story-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-12/whitney-houston-record-setting-popular-singer-film-actress-dies-at-48.html
Great article in the New York Times on digital theft at the highest levels, especially when traveling to China-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/technology/electronic-security-a-worry-in-an-age-of-digital-espionage.html?ref=business
Another good example of an entrepreneur in the NY Times as well-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/jobs/plum-districts-chief-on-investing-in-mom-power.html?ref=business
Nice article from CFO magazine regarding the return on investment of social media. By the way, CFO magazine is a super read for anybody interested in business-http://www3.cfo.com/article/2012/2/technology_social-media-roi
Great story in the NBA about the new point guard for the New York Knicks, Jeremy Lin. Not drafted, cut last year by the Warriors, shows that persistence pays off. Reminds me of a good friend of mine-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-08/harvard-s-lin-boosts-knicks-interest-in-asia-with-record-setting-debut.html
I hope everyone has a good week and if you have any comments or questions, please post them!!!!
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/347561-cardionet-a-market-beater-or-a-value-trap
The news that Whitney Houston died yesterday was sad. She sold over 170 million albums world wide and in her prime could really bring it. It is also a reminder if you don't take care of yourself and have good healthy habits you are going to run into problems. I look at this situation, or Michael Jackson, where you have people who have every reason to live and are self destructive and just think it is a waste of talent. Unfortunately, the most common thing in the world is wasted talent and intelligence. What is rare are guys like Buffett and Munger, who built themselves into billionaires, and built Berkshire Hathaway into a multi-billion dollar enterprise and helped build the wealth of tens of thousands of people. Yet Buffett takes more criticism these days than ever before. You have to wonder if there is anything in the world that is unassailable. Here is a link from Bloomberg on the Whitney Houston Story-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-12/whitney-houston-record-setting-popular-singer-film-actress-dies-at-48.html
Great article in the New York Times on digital theft at the highest levels, especially when traveling to China-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/technology/electronic-security-a-worry-in-an-age-of-digital-espionage.html?ref=business
Another good example of an entrepreneur in the NY Times as well-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/jobs/plum-districts-chief-on-investing-in-mom-power.html?ref=business
Nice article from CFO magazine regarding the return on investment of social media. By the way, CFO magazine is a super read for anybody interested in business-http://www3.cfo.com/article/2012/2/technology_social-media-roi
Great story in the NBA about the new point guard for the New York Knicks, Jeremy Lin. Not drafted, cut last year by the Warriors, shows that persistence pays off. Reminds me of a good friend of mine-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-08/harvard-s-lin-boosts-knicks-interest-in-asia-with-record-setting-debut.html
I hope everyone has a good week and if you have any comments or questions, please post them!!!!
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/347561-cardionet-a-market-beater-or-a-value-trap
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
A Good Job's Report (What?), Europe's Banks, Do It Yourself Apps, Young CEO's, and Urbanspoon's Growth-
On Friday, the stock market was temporarily impressed with the better than expected job growth of 257K the U.S. economy added in January of 2012. Investors in the stock market have been repeatedly burned by macroeconomic numbers showing subpar employment numbers. One of the reasons why there is so much pessimism in the investment and business world is the supposed recovery is one of lackluster growth. In comparison with other economic recoveries where growth averaged 4-6% (Reagan, Bush, Clinton), one that puts up annual numbers of 2% are hard to get excited about. Still, if the economy can continue to post job gains of over 200K per month on a consistent basis, more faith would be justified. Considering that in one month during the Reagan recovery, I believe there was a total of 1 million jobs created, 257K is nothing to, shall we say, do backflips over.
Still, as a stock market investor, we will take good news over bad news every day. Unfortunately, your stocks don't always go up with good news. In fact, they often go down on "Buy the rumor, sell the news." Which is fine, especially if you can find good companies at attractive prices. The harder you look, the more you discover, like turning over lots of rocks to find one diamond. If you find one good one in your life, it more than makes up for the disappointments.
The Super Bowl was a good, hard fought contest, and a pretty well played game. Madonna tried hard as well, although the woman who flipped off the crowd should be banned from network tv and blacklisted by the networks. Anyway, as always, mistakes cost a team and the two by Brady really hurt, especially the safety early in the game, which could be considered an unforced error. Also, I think the Giants mishandled their position and should have knelt down on the ball and kicked a field goal with very little time on the clock, that way Brady never gets on the field again. Giving the ball back to Brady and the Patriots offense, even with under a minute to go, was not very smart. How many times have we seen Terrific Tom come through to win a game at the end with a great drive. The Giants won and good for the city of New York, but that does not mean they handled that situation wisely, at least in my opinion.
Colorado and Minnesota hold primaries today, and we will see if Santorum can catch any momentum. If not, Mr. Romney looks like he will be tough to stop. He will have a lot of work to do raising money and mobilizing Republicans. I also think it is a good thing for him he is very underestimated by so many Democrats and the media, as well as conservatives who don't like his moderate positions. Mr. Romney has been a winner over the last 20 years and not understanding that is potentially a huge mistake.
Europe's Banks don't want to throw good money after bad- not a good sign for the Euro but you can bet many companies will be looking to acquire cheap assets there-http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/europes-banks-reluctant-to-aid-companies-in-need-of-cash/?src=me&ref=business
Nice article on companies creating applications on their own and how they can help productivity-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-07/do-it-yourself-mobile-applications-gain-honeywell-to-disney-embrace-tech.html
Youth Vs Experience as a CEO-http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203315804577207131063501196.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLE_Video_Top
Urbanspoon's Growth is Driven By Mobile-http://techcrunch.com/2012/02/07/urbanspoon-traffic-up-80-in-2011-mobile-growth-faster-than-web/
I hope everyone has a great week and if you have any thoughts about the blog, comments, or questions, please share or email me at information@y-hc.com
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/347561-cardionet-a-market-beater-or-a-value-trap
Still, as a stock market investor, we will take good news over bad news every day. Unfortunately, your stocks don't always go up with good news. In fact, they often go down on "Buy the rumor, sell the news." Which is fine, especially if you can find good companies at attractive prices. The harder you look, the more you discover, like turning over lots of rocks to find one diamond. If you find one good one in your life, it more than makes up for the disappointments.
The Super Bowl was a good, hard fought contest, and a pretty well played game. Madonna tried hard as well, although the woman who flipped off the crowd should be banned from network tv and blacklisted by the networks. Anyway, as always, mistakes cost a team and the two by Brady really hurt, especially the safety early in the game, which could be considered an unforced error. Also, I think the Giants mishandled their position and should have knelt down on the ball and kicked a field goal with very little time on the clock, that way Brady never gets on the field again. Giving the ball back to Brady and the Patriots offense, even with under a minute to go, was not very smart. How many times have we seen Terrific Tom come through to win a game at the end with a great drive. The Giants won and good for the city of New York, but that does not mean they handled that situation wisely, at least in my opinion.
Colorado and Minnesota hold primaries today, and we will see if Santorum can catch any momentum. If not, Mr. Romney looks like he will be tough to stop. He will have a lot of work to do raising money and mobilizing Republicans. I also think it is a good thing for him he is very underestimated by so many Democrats and the media, as well as conservatives who don't like his moderate positions. Mr. Romney has been a winner over the last 20 years and not understanding that is potentially a huge mistake.
Europe's Banks don't want to throw good money after bad- not a good sign for the Euro but you can bet many companies will be looking to acquire cheap assets there-http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/europes-banks-reluctant-to-aid-companies-in-need-of-cash/?src=me&ref=business
Nice article on companies creating applications on their own and how they can help productivity-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-07/do-it-yourself-mobile-applications-gain-honeywell-to-disney-embrace-tech.html
Youth Vs Experience as a CEO-http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203315804577207131063501196.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLE_Video_Top
Urbanspoon's Growth is Driven By Mobile-http://techcrunch.com/2012/02/07/urbanspoon-traffic-up-80-in-2011-mobile-growth-faster-than-web/
I hope everyone has a great week and if you have any thoughts about the blog, comments, or questions, please share or email me at information@y-hc.com
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/347561-cardionet-a-market-beater-or-a-value-trap
Friday, January 27, 2012
Romney vs Gingrich, the U.S. Economy, Introducing Payvment, and Why RIM's Demise Is Instructive-
It was an interesting week in the world as the stock market rolled along with new market leadership. It seems as big tech companies with lots of cash are seen as less risky than previously thought. Ya think with billions in net cash on a balance sheet, comfort can be taken the world might not be ending. In general, if one is a pessimist, the stock market is not the best place to be participating in. When the boogy man is always around the corner, it becomes harder and harder to pull the trigger on what might be a good opportunity, especially if one is allocating lots of money to a potential purchase. You can always count on the guys on wall street to say, ya know, that stock has had a great run, lets take some off the table and see if we can find something better. Not that you can, but that is how Wall Street thinks because they always know everything.
The Romney- Gingrich race proved a little interesting as Newt scored a victory on his own turf. With Florida's election on Tuesday, we know of at least one Las Vegas native, a certain owner and wife of the Venetian, which thinks Gingrich is worth getting behind (to the tune of $10 million). We will find out more in a few days, but I think Romney wins Florida by 5, then romps in the next 5-10 states and wraps the nomination up early. The real issue is can he beat Obama, and he will need to be able to mobilize the Gingrich's, Santorum's, Palin, Limbaugh, etc., to give himself the best chance. I hate getting to wrapped up in politics because like sports, it tends to always break your heart as the leaders are always so bad. Romney, however, has a long track record of achievement in everything he has ever touched, so we hopes he can get the job done.
The U.S. Economy grew at 1.8% during the last quarter, faster than previously thought. Still, the country needs better growth and fast-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/28/business/economy/us-economy-grows-at-modest-2-8-percent-rate.html?_r=1&ref=business
Facebook is filing to go public, and their payment engine Payvment is a heck of a startup. If your interested in where Facebook is headed, this video does a good job of leading you there-http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/27/keen-on-payvment-making-ecommerce-more-social-tctv/
The demise of Research In Motion is illustrative of why technology is such a treacherous field for investors. Technology is always changing, and with investing, change is not necessarily a good thing-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-27/innovate-without-mercy-is-the-enduring-lesson-of-rim-and-blackberry-view.html
The Super Bowl should be interesting, though it is hard for me to think Brady is not destined for a Joe Montana like performance. Still, if the Patriots cannot block the Giants front 4, it could be the same result as the last time they played in the big one. Hope everyone has a great weekend and if you have any comments or thoughts, please post them.
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/315009-2-value-stocks-under-2-dollars
The Romney- Gingrich race proved a little interesting as Newt scored a victory on his own turf. With Florida's election on Tuesday, we know of at least one Las Vegas native, a certain owner and wife of the Venetian, which thinks Gingrich is worth getting behind (to the tune of $10 million). We will find out more in a few days, but I think Romney wins Florida by 5, then romps in the next 5-10 states and wraps the nomination up early. The real issue is can he beat Obama, and he will need to be able to mobilize the Gingrich's, Santorum's, Palin, Limbaugh, etc., to give himself the best chance. I hate getting to wrapped up in politics because like sports, it tends to always break your heart as the leaders are always so bad. Romney, however, has a long track record of achievement in everything he has ever touched, so we hopes he can get the job done.
The U.S. Economy grew at 1.8% during the last quarter, faster than previously thought. Still, the country needs better growth and fast-http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/28/business/economy/us-economy-grows-at-modest-2-8-percent-rate.html?_r=1&ref=business
Facebook is filing to go public, and their payment engine Payvment is a heck of a startup. If your interested in where Facebook is headed, this video does a good job of leading you there-http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/27/keen-on-payvment-making-ecommerce-more-social-tctv/
The demise of Research In Motion is illustrative of why technology is such a treacherous field for investors. Technology is always changing, and with investing, change is not necessarily a good thing-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-27/innovate-without-mercy-is-the-enduring-lesson-of-rim-and-blackberry-view.html
The Super Bowl should be interesting, though it is hard for me to think Brady is not destined for a Joe Montana like performance. Still, if the Patriots cannot block the Giants front 4, it could be the same result as the last time they played in the big one. Hope everyone has a great weekend and if you have any comments or thoughts, please post them.
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/315009-2-value-stocks-under-2-dollars
Thursday, January 19, 2012
'Fast Money' Advice, The Stock Market and Smart Money, Kodak, and Apple's Push Into Education-
I was watching 'Fast Money', the trading show which airs at 2:00 pst on CNBC and thought I would comment on the 'advice' one gets from the so called experts on that program. First, you have an individual who has a book called, "Buy High, Sell Higher." A recent quote by Warren Buffett about the market was, ' The lower it goes, the more I buy.' The approaches could not offer a larger contrast in methodologies. Myself, I think the guy from Omaha is who you listen to as he has done pretty well and intuitively, the cheaper the price of an asset, the more one gets for their money. Obviously, much depends on what the asset consists of in terms of what you are getting when you buy it. In today's environment, market participants are avoiding companies with heavy debt loads. Many times, one avoids a lot of trouble that way. However, just because a company has a large debt load does not mean it may not be a good investment. One must compares debt levels to net cash, other marketable securities and assets, and the cash generated by the business to get a more precise understanding of whether a company is able to service the debt easily. In addition, knowing the interest rates, maturity terms, and debt covenants related to the debt issuance tells a buyer what restrictions are on the company with respect to servicing the debt.
Next, I thought I would mention my opinion of the constant stream of chartologists which come on the program. If you think investment bankers or successful portfolio managers like David Einhorn analyze charts to make investments, you are mistaken. In my opinion, the minute they pull out stock charts, run for the hills. You are better off going to company web sites, looking at earnings releases and reading 10-Q's, 8-K's, and Annual Reports. The charting stuff is a byproduct of financial results and the markets reaction to those results. Kindergartners look at pictures, people making investment decisions regarding thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millions of dollars have to read a ton of material.
Interesting article on smart Money and the stock Market-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/smart-money-owning-more-equities-says-finland-iq-study-of-who-buys-stock.html
Kodak finally files for Bankrutpcy- When they put digital cameras into phones, that was the kiss of death-http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2017274850_apuskodakbankruptcy.html
Apple is making a huge push into the education sector with ibooks and the Ipad- smart move as it is a massive market ripe for more efficiency-http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/19/apple-announces-ibook-2-a-new-textbook-experience-for-the-ipad
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/315009-2-value-stocks-under-2-dollars
Next, I thought I would mention my opinion of the constant stream of chartologists which come on the program. If you think investment bankers or successful portfolio managers like David Einhorn analyze charts to make investments, you are mistaken. In my opinion, the minute they pull out stock charts, run for the hills. You are better off going to company web sites, looking at earnings releases and reading 10-Q's, 8-K's, and Annual Reports. The charting stuff is a byproduct of financial results and the markets reaction to those results. Kindergartners look at pictures, people making investment decisions regarding thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millions of dollars have to read a ton of material.
Interesting article on smart Money and the stock Market-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/smart-money-owning-more-equities-says-finland-iq-study-of-who-buys-stock.html
Kodak finally files for Bankrutpcy- When they put digital cameras into phones, that was the kiss of death-http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2017274850_apuskodakbankruptcy.html
Apple is making a huge push into the education sector with ibooks and the Ipad- smart move as it is a massive market ripe for more efficiency-http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/19/apple-announces-ibook-2-a-new-textbook-experience-for-the-ipad
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links)
1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/320102-marchex-contender-or-pretender-in-the-mobile-advertising-industry
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
4) http://seekingalpha.com/article/315009-2-value-stocks-under-2-dollars
Saturday, January 7, 2012
The Digital Revolution- Industry Winners and Is it Laying Waste to Some Long Standing Companies?
I was watching CNBC's Fast Money on Thursday when the question was posed, 'What companies won't be around at this time next year because of the digital revolution? The panelists named their contenders, or in this case pretenders, which included the likes of Best Buy, Barnes & Noble, and Live Nation. Instead of commenting on the merit of these picks, I think a more important consideration is to look at the digital issue from a different slant. Moreover, what trends could persist for a long time and why?
Clearly, in the information technology sector, the shift from personal computers to wireless devices, specifically tablets and smart phones, is a secular move where the latter unit sales have had a definitive impact on the slowing of the growth rate of unit sales of pc's.
Consistent with this theme will be the continued growth and usage of applications and software written and provided through wireless devices, especially on HTML5. Another massive secular change in the information technology space is the cloud computing movement, affecting both small businesses and large enterprises, as the cost structure is so advantageous it takes the traditional upfront licensing software licensing model and made all businesses rethink those large license fees. Renting applications and services and having them hosted in multiple locations will continue to take market share from the traditional licensing model.
Moving into a different industry, there will be a massive change in health care technology as the long awaited movement to electronic health records and data storage accelerates. E-perscriptions, diagnostic testing and recording through applications, and improved customer wait times through wireless notification apps all will see continued growth in adoption and may well explode in the next few years. A huge shift continues to take place in in media, where unique digital content is now being added to traditional distribution platforms as a way to bundle digital programs and not lose existing revenues from the existing media delivery methods. The recent ESPN-Comcast deal provides the model which will probably continue to be adopted by the large media players. I also think that pre-paid services will prove to be a big winner, especially in combination with money transfers on phones, gift cards, and debit cards. The movement into wireless payments by phone with services like Google Wallet and NFC based technologies will happen slowly at first, and gradually take hold as the convenience factor is a huge selling point because people do not want to carry five thousand credit and debit cards.
As for commentary on the CNBC question, I think speculating on what companies go out of business is a bit non professional and does a disservice to the employees and management of those companies. Certainly, we know that some businesses face larger secular headwinds than others, but the companies mentioned have strong market positions and I don't believe will be gone in a year, unless they get bought out and compensated for their existing enterprise values. The idea they will be gone in a year is nonsense. Please comment on the article or if you think there are any companies that might be winners in the existing digital space, or that may face large problems in the next year!!!!
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links) 1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/315009-2-value-stocks-under-2-dollars
Consistent with this theme will be the continued growth and usage of applications and software written and provided through wireless devices, especially on HTML5. Another massive secular change in the information technology space is the cloud computing movement, affecting both small businesses and large enterprises, as the cost structure is so advantageous it takes the traditional upfront licensing software licensing model and made all businesses rethink those large license fees. Renting applications and services and having them hosted in multiple locations will continue to take market share from the traditional licensing model.
Moving into a different industry, there will be a massive change in health care technology as the long awaited movement to electronic health records and data storage accelerates. E-perscriptions, diagnostic testing and recording through applications, and improved customer wait times through wireless notification apps all will see continued growth in adoption and may well explode in the next few years. A huge shift continues to take place in in media, where unique digital content is now being added to traditional distribution platforms as a way to bundle digital programs and not lose existing revenues from the existing media delivery methods. The recent ESPN-Comcast deal provides the model which will probably continue to be adopted by the large media players. I also think that pre-paid services will prove to be a big winner, especially in combination with money transfers on phones, gift cards, and debit cards. The movement into wireless payments by phone with services like Google Wallet and NFC based technologies will happen slowly at first, and gradually take hold as the convenience factor is a huge selling point because people do not want to carry five thousand credit and debit cards.
As for commentary on the CNBC question, I think speculating on what companies go out of business is a bit non professional and does a disservice to the employees and management of those companies. Certainly, we know that some businesses face larger secular headwinds than others, but the companies mentioned have strong market positions and I don't believe will be gone in a year, unless they get bought out and compensated for their existing enterprise values. The idea they will be gone in a year is nonsense. Please comment on the article or if you think there are any companies that might be winners in the existing digital space, or that may face large problems in the next year!!!!
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
(If you are interested in seeing the latest Seeking Alpha articles about specific stock picks from Yale Bock and Y H & C Investments, click the following links) 1) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317215-american-greetings-a-value-trap-or-a-good-opportunity-for-outsized-gains
2) http://seekingalpha.com/article/317139-usa-technologies-possibly-building-a-payment-processing-juggernaut
3) http://seekingalpha.com/article/315009-2-value-stocks-under-2-dollars
Thursday, December 29, 2011
See Ya 2011, On to 2012, Israeli Startups, Google's New Ad Format, and Issues at Sears!!!
The last week of 2011 has been a good microcosm of what much of the entire year looked like, a market undecided about what it believes. Going into the last day of the last week of 2011, US equity markets are slightly ahead of where they started 2011, like a rolller coaster which ends up where it started, and both have had their heart thumping drops and exciting climbs to the top. However, as usual, companies which had stocks that were egregiously priced eventually saw the froth taken out of their share price, be it Green Mountain by the always astute David Einhorn, Netflix, Molycorp, Human Genome Sciences, or any number of others which pop to mind (Salesforce, Opentable, etc). Many companies had good performance which was rewarded, and as usual, those which did not make money or had poor results were punished severely. As 2011 comes to a close, I find it interesting gold has not held up very well these last few weeks as I am sure many investors want to lock in their massive gains in the metal's price, especially if you had invested five or ten years ago when it was dirt cheap.
The price of oil has hung in there pretty well, certainly helped by the saber rattling of the Iranians with respect to the Strait of Hormuz. Still, much of what I read about oil leads me to conclude the United States is gradually moving towards developing and our huge natural gas supplies through fracking based exploration, and combined with the development in the Canadian Tar Sands, and increased activity efforts in the Gulf of Mexico and other parts of South and Central America, OPEC's choke hold on mature countries may not last more than another decade, and hopefully sooner. The quicker we can not rely on lunatic countries for our oil supplies the better.
Romney has taken a bit of a lead in Iowa, so with a few days left before the first primary, we will see what happens but the Republican nomination might be over pretty quick, especially if he takes Iowa, and then follows it up with a big romp in Massachusetts, after which he would head to South Carolina with a ton of momentum.
Interesting situation developing in Israel with reduced funding for startups by their government- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-29/google-backs-israeli-startups-as-local-financing-hits-12-year-low-tech.html
Google is testing a new advertising format-http://techcrunch.com/2011/12/29/google-testing-new-email-subscription-ad-format/
The problems at Sears are instructive of a few good lessons. First, Eddie Lampert has been a great investor for a long time, and is a brilliant guy, but what did he know about big box retailing, especially considering the worthy competitors like Wal-Mart, Target, Home Depot, Lowes, Amazon.com, etc? Second, when companies do not reinvest in their basic business, in this case merchandising, product assortment and breadth, and human resources (among others), it is hard to break the cycle of losing customers and reduced sales. With the shares down 80% from their all time high, maybe Mr. Lampart will rethink his strategy-http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204632204577129122795672382.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
Finally, I hope everyone has a healthy and happy 2012! If you have any comments or questions about this blog, please post them, I love your feedback! Happy new year everyone!
As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charterholder.
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